In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010
That is history, but how is the current political climate steering the electorate? Despite strong economic growth real GDP growth of 4. Is this good or bad news for the in-party? Moreover, aside from Presidents George H. Other than the Bushes, every president since the mids has had approval ratings in the low to mid 40s at their first midterm. The bad news for Republicans is that the parties of each of these four recent non-Bush presidents Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama suffered double-digit House seat losses in their midterms and two lost more than 50 seats Clinton in and Obama in What follows are four independent congressional forecasts that inform us about what we should expect to come out of this election.
Table 1 presents a summary of these congressional forecasts. Although there are differences among them, two points are common. This is likely to be a very good year for the Democrats in the House of Representatives. In fact, all four forecasts expect a Democratic House majority. In the Senate, Republicans are likely to hold their own and perhaps pick up a seat or two.
So, on to the forecasts. For more details about the forecasts, see the links at the top of this piece. The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections both on-year and midterms is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat change.
The Seats-in-Trouble forecasting equation built from these observations was first used in the House elections. It has since been modified, tweaked, and extended to Senate elections. The accuracy of its forecasts in its various incarnations has been quite good until , when substantial expected Democratic seat gains failed to materialize. The raw material of seats-in-trouble equation is the pre-election competitiveness ratings of individual district or state races determined by The Cook Political Report since the mids.
The seats-in-trouble index aggregates these individual district or state in application to the Senate ratings to a national measure. The revised index now counts a seat as being in trouble if it is rated as a toss-up or worse for the party currently holding the seat.
The index is computed as the net difference in the number of seats in trouble for each party: Democratic seats in trouble minus Republican seats in trouble. A negative relationship is expected between the number of seats in trouble for a party and the number of seats actually gained by that party. The seats in trouble index is plotted against seat change for Democrats in House and Senate elections in Figures 1 and 2 respectively, and the associated regression equations are presented in Table 1.
Ratings around August were not made in and and those elections, therefore, are not included. Ratings around August were not made in and are, therefore, not included. Standard errors are in parentheses. House estimates are based on elections from , , and from to Data was unavailable for the Senate in The seats in trouble count is from The Cook Political Report in or around mid-August of the election year.
As Figure 1 and the table indicate, the index and actual seat changes are strongly related in House elections and the conversion of vulnerable seats to lost seats is greater than one in absolute value. If there are strong partisan short-term forces developing in an election, August ratings pick up their early signs, but not their full brunt as they build to November. The Cook Political Report in mid-August rated three House seats held by Democrats and 37 seats held by Republicans as toss-ups or worse.
With a toss-up or worse difference of for the Democrats, they are likely to gain about 44 seats. Present and Future Aristotle, considered by many scholars as an early patriarch of political science and a major influence on the discipline, attempted to classify forms of government.
Although Plato further offered his theories on ideal forms of government, political scientists now consider the subject of utopias to belong outside the scope of their discipline. Individuals with strong computer training and language skills will fare far better in the field, particularly those specializing in the areas of public administration and public policy.
Fewer vacancies at colleges and universities will mean that competition for existing jobs will be keen. With the move toward smaller, more efficient government, jobs in local, state, and federal government agencies will shrink rapidly. Limited employment opportunities will be available in the private sector with certain industries, political parties, and individuals seeking public office.
While future job opportunities are limited, the position itself has been around for a long time and should remain secure. At the two-year level, the political scientist is probably employed as a trainee or a research assistant.
He is concerned about acquiring significant experience and working his way up the ranks. It is important that the relative newcomer establish mentorships. Those who have finished their Ph. Five years into the profession, the emphasis is still on experience. Those who have specialized in public administration may see greater progress in their career, moving up the ranks and being called upon to head up research projects. Professors, usually associates by now, are publishing and seeking tenure.
At this level the political scientist teaching at a college or university should be a tenured professor with a body of scholarly research, articles, and books to show for his years of work. The political scientist who started out in research may have advanced to research director at his organization. With ten years of experience, the political scientist has a fairly secure position and commands the respect of his peers and potential employers.
Panarin is currently the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and appears regularly on Russian television channels.
Panarin says he is a supporter of Russia as a superstate but claims that Russia presently has no imperial ambitions. In his view, after Stalin started a process of recreation of the Rus doctrine "Moscow — a Third Rome " in new historical conditions. On 3 July when Stalin addressed the Soviet people as "Brothers and sisters",  this doctrine became the dominating geopolitical idea of the USSR-Rus and replaced the Lenin-Trotsky's idea of world revolution that was an external imported geopolitical project.
And the Trotskyist ideas won at the end of the 20th century in the USA and brightly manifested themselves in the ideology of the liberal globalism of a part of the contemporary American political elite globalists. On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the latter's rise to power on 11 March , Panarin called him "the Antihero of Russia". Panarin opposes the Houston programme of  and criticises the Russian finance minister Alexey Kudrin for following it, saying the financial crisis in Russia is a part of it.
He recommends selling oil and gas to Ukraine only for roubles which in his view would automatically block its process of integration in NATO and withdrawal of all Russian funds from the American "financial Titanic ", buying gold and creating powerful Russian banks. In , Panarin coined the term "New British Empire ", which in his view started forming in later he said that the Dulles brothers created it [ citation needed ] and consists of 7 levels, with the following structure subordinate from top to bottom: Panarin has written that the September 11 attacks in may have been aimed at replacing levels 2 and 3 of the New British Empire with China and the Chinese Commonwealth, respectively see also his book "Information warfare and geopolitics" , accelerating the U.
In the summer of , based on classified data about the state of the U. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government , effectively seceding from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers. Explaining his theory in an interview with Izvestia , Panarin stated that "The U. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche; this is a pyramid, which has to collapse.
Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope [that President-elect Barack Obama] can work miracles.