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Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk. You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive. Upcoming Greek elections could force substantial volatility in the Euro and other major currency pairs, and a broad range of market indicators show that conditions show fears for the worst.
DailyFX Currency Analyst Christopher Vecchio lays out the stakes and fundamental reasons for why Greek elections c o uld materially change outlook for the Euro. Trader positioning likewise shows fear for the worst—how exactly? Traders should remain extremely cautious and limit positions and especially leverage ahead of the weekend.
When markets open, we likewise expect markets will be extremely volatile and difficult to trade. Why do traders fear the worst? Quite simply, a far-left party victory could effectively push the government of Greece into default as party leaders have made it clear they intend to issue a moratorium on debt repayments and renege on bailout agreements. We can gauge overall fear of Greek default by the yields investors require for long-dated bonds; high yields show strong expected risk of default.
The writing on the wall tell us that the Euro could fall substantially on sharply negative disappointments, and trader positioning likewise shows that many are betting on or hedging aggressively against EURUSD weakness.
Yet there is absolutely no guarantee that Greek elections will produce such negative outcomes. Volatility expectations themselves predict that price moves could be substantial in either direction. Benoit Hamon, the candidate of President Hollande's Socialist Party said "I encourage everyone to fight as hard as they can to fight the extreme right, and to fight for Macron". Almost 47 million people were eligible to vote. Nearly 60, police and soldiers were deployed across the country to secure polling, with France still reeling from the shooting of a policeman on the Champs Elysees.
Theresa May is also sharply critical of proposals for the Irish border put forward by some Brexiteers. Macron and Le Pen through to run-off 24 April Related Topics France elections Opinion polls have consistently predicted Mr Macron defeating his rival in the run-off. The meteoric rise of Emmanuel Macron Markets sense relief after vote Whoever wins the second round, the voting marks a shift away from the decades-long dominance of leftist and centre-right parties in French politics.
Media playback is unsupported on your device. Click to see content: More on this story. Macron and Le Pen through to run-off. Elsewhere on the BBC. Would it have to exit the Eurozone then? Nobody knows what would really happen.
The Conservatives and the Socialists agree with that analysis. The other sides support a moratorium on the payment of the debt, and they argue that the catastrophe has already arrived in Greece, with unemployment over 20 per cent and anger and desperation growing. They say that this recipe has not worked for Greece, so the alternative is to try something different.