MLB Betting Basics, Handicapping And Money Line Strategies

The Mets and Phillies play once again as the Phillies look to keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive. So I dug in deeper looking at Bauer and read that he had recently made some major changes over the past month deciding to throw his best pitches a much higher percentage of the time which I confirmed at one of the many great MLB stat sites out there. All reasonable numbers, all high-variance types of games in my estimation. Key Matchup Tools Injuries. Handicapping Major League Baseball: Finding What Works & What Doesn’t

Situational MLB Sports Book Handicapping

5 thoughts on “MLB Betting Picks & Tips September 17, 2018”

Stats — Our national pastime, maybe more than any other sport, scrutinizes statistics. This article tells you which stats are important when considering a game to bet on. Weather — Exploring how field conditions and temperature can impact ballgames. You use the information to your advantage. Parlays — Introduction to parlays. Calculate Parlay Returns — Method for calculating returns on diamond parlays. Due to the money line, parlay odds will work differently for Major League Baseball than it does for spread-based sports.

Good Pitching vs Good Hitting — Who has the advantage when a good hitting team features a good pitcher? Big Favorites — Big favorites are always a strong lure for bettors, but they come with a huge amount of risk. This summary talks about why you should be careful with fat minus-lines. First Inning Bets — A look at what first inning bets are and whether or not they are worth considering. First 5 Innings Bets — It can be frustrating when you bet a team because of their starting hurler, who does well, but the bullpen ends up blowing it for him.

This post talks about gambling on just the first 5 innings of a given ballgame. Interleague Play — Interleague play has added a new dimension. Strategies — There are several tactics that have worked over the years which should be taken into consideration before you place your bets.

Revenge Systems — Revenge can be a powerful motivating factor for clubs in certain situations. Hitting Correlations with Runs Scored — Statistical analysis at what offensive statistics are most important for winning. Key Numbers for Totals — A look at the most common run-total output of 2 teams in a ballgame. Best Baseball Sportsbook — We track the books and keep this page up-to-date every season!

They were going to break out. And facing a weak starter and a bad bullpen was exactly the kindling that lineup needed to catch fire. Miami scored eight runs that game — nearly covering the 9. The numbers don't lie. Don't fight them, use them. That makes a best bet for me. And I base my daily best bets on how many of those stats come into play on a given day. If I find a game in which I get seven of 10 then that play will be on par with a Game of the Year.

One of the things you should look for is how teams perform in their last six games. What you want is teams that are averaging at least six runs per game in their last six games versus a team that is averaging four runs or less over their last six games. That is one useful tip for finding a best bet on the diamond and it is a system I have used to help me earn 9 of 10 winning baseball years.

Sometimes you get lopsided pitching matchups on Friday because teams sometimes want their ace or number two pitcher going on Saturday. In early May on a Friday night we had the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Pittsburgh Pirates and we had great pitching value laying only in a game the Diamondbacks won So those should be days where you are looking to make your best bets of the day.

I know this seems kind of obvious. But sometime bettors can overthink things, especially when they are considering stepping out with a wager that is larger than normal. But you can often find tremendous value betting against the worst teams in the league. You can't find line value with the top tier teams going up against the teams in the basement. The moneylines are usually too big.

But if you are in a situation where you can find a second-tier or middle-of-the-pack team going up against the worst teams in the league then you have the beginning of a top play. The five or six worst teams in baseball are reliable for their ability to lose games in a variety of manners.

The worst teams in baseball generally don't have a strong home field advantage because they don't draw many fans. And the teams in the basement generally aren't much better at home than they are on the road. We won our 8-Unit Game of the Year in mid-July with Arizona, a team that has been battling for the wild card all season, going against Cincinnati, one of the worst teams in the N.

Arizona predictably dominated, winning Your best bets should always be against the worst teams because the books can't get you with the spread. Take advantage of that. But, each sport is slightly different and in baseball we look for let downs for pitchers as well. For example, with our most recent 7-Unit win on the Arizona Diamondbacks and L. Dodgers 'Over' 9 runs which cashed in the 4th inning , Rich Hill was coming off a brilliant effort against Pittsburgh where he gave up 1 hit in a complete game of work.

Unfortunately for him that one hit was a home run and he lost That type of effort with no reward is brutal to take to the psyche of a pitcher and consequently we knew that he likely has a let down in his next start. And he did, giving up six runs in fewer than four innings of work.

Remember, Arizona had motivation too as he had just help beat them back on July 6 when he gave up two hits in seven innings of work. Hence, we took the 'over' and it hit relatively easily.

Back on August 14 I cashed a winning 7-Unit play on the Cleveland Indians using this kind of information. In that game the Indians started Trevor Bauer and my big play was centered around how much better pitcher Bauer had become of late compared to the rest of the season.

What got my attention with Bauer was his recent form appeared to be a lot better than his overall season numbers 1. So I dug in deeper looking at Bauer and read that he had recently made some major changes over the past month deciding to throw his best pitches a much higher percentage of the time which I confirmed at one of the many great MLB stat sites out there. He also had changed his arm slot which had slowed down his 3rd most used pitch cutter and that change in arm slot created a larger MPH differential between his cutter and his top two pitches overall.

In the end this is something that the MLB betting markets are usually very slow to react too over the course of their very long regular season. It was an easy call for a best bet and he came through easily. Hitters tend to get hot and stay hot for an extended period of time and it's important to keep an eye on that.

The same can be said for pitchers as well. Most importantly, pay attention to the way teams are playing as the truth will reveal itself and don't try to force them to play otherwise. A lot of gamblers will try to force a best bet on a team that they believe to be a very good even when that team is slumping.

Ride the hot teams regardless if they are supposed to be a good team or not.