April 28, 2015
With craps, the dice faces never change. In baseball, your odds are determined by the abilities of at least six Pitcher, Catcher, Batter 1, Batter 2, Batter 3, Base Runner on second and up to thirteen the remaining fielders or more Batter 4 if one of the other batters is walked players. Is the pitcher on his "A" game? And even if so, is he an ace or mediocre? The batting averages of the upcoming batters.
Are any of those batters hot or cold? If NL, Will the pitcher be batting? What are the fielding percentages of the players behind the pitcher?
Will the pitcher intentionally walk the next batter to try and create a force-out situation? In baseball if there is a runner at thrid with two outs and scores but the batter get out at first does the run count? In baseball what is the percentage of a runner on third base scoring with one out? I can't find an exact percentage but I know it would be up there because they usually score on a sacrifice fly. If the runner was thrown out at first then it is a sacrifice.
Fielders choice is when you couldve easily been thrown out at first but the baseman throws it to a different base … to try to get someone else out.
Correction This would be neither, the 1st part of the answer above is incorrect, the later part is correct. It really depends on how the play unfolds. If you hit it to 2nd basemen and you are thrown out at first, then it is just scored a groundout -- if the player fields the ball at 2nd and throws the ball anywhere other then 1st to get the batter out, then it would be a "Fielders Choice" -- there is no instance in which this would be a sacrifice if you swing the bat and the ball goes to the 2nd basemen if this was a bunt fielded by the 2nd basemen I placed the following filters in the UI: Hovering over a point shows the player and his salary.
For example, Mike Trout created 58 runs out of a potential of in Filtering for second baseman under the age of 30 and weighing less than pounds, we see Jason Kipnis created 27 runs out of a potential of For example, in Jose Abreu created The following tabs show runs expectancies of various offensive plays from the start state the expected end state, based on the expected Baserunning Success rate in the UI.
For each play, I created a graphical as well as a table tab. For the graphical tabs, there is a UI to switch between views of expected runs and scoring probability.
For each of fifteen different base stealing situations, I show the start state, end state based on the UI selected success rate , and the breakeven success rate for the given situation. I broke down every situation where a fly ball was caught with a runner on third, where the catch was either the first or second out. I tracked the attempt frequency and success rate for each situation, based on the outs and whether there were trailing runners. The following tabs show whether a base runner should attempt to advance two bases on a single.
Again, of course it depends on the situation. Here we see that the attempted frequencies are very low, and as expected, lowest on balls hit to left field. For example, on a single to right field with one out, runners only attempt to advance to third base If we place the UI Success Rate slider on 0.
Attempting to score from second on a single depends not only on the outs, but also whether there is a trailing runner. Once again, the success rates are almost always higher than the break even rate, showing too much caution.
These tabs show that unless we have a hitter far below average, the sacrifice should never be attempted. For example, in going from a runner on first and no outs to a runner on second with one out, or going from a runner on second with no outs to a runner on third with one out, we drop from 0.
The only situation where the bunt might be wise is in a late inning and the team is playing for one run after a leadoff double. So, with 2 outs, the runner on 3rd should recognize the situation and make sure the infield is, in fact, playing at normal depth. Knowing the easiest play is at first on a routine groundball, the runner should be running on contact.
There is only one situation when the runner on 3rd should hesitate before attempting to score. If the ball is put into play on a check swing or swinging bunt and travels slowly down the 3rd baseline, the force play at 1st base will be tougher to make. A sharp infielder will realize this and attempt to put out the runner on 3rd if he is running on contact.
In this case, the three most likely fielders to make a play on the ball are the pitcher, catcher, or 3rd baseman. The runner on 3rd should recognize that running on contact may have him running into an easy tag play. Instead, he should wait to see how the play develops.
If he holds back even for a split second, the fielder has to make an attempt to get the runner out at first to end the inning. Then, and only then, the runner should attempt to score. The runner on 2nd base has a little more to think about in this situation. We already know the infielders will be playing at normal depth, and we know the defense wants to make the easy force play at first on a routine groundball. However, the runner needs to know that his approach to advancing on the base paths is dependent upon where the ball is hit as well.
With 2 outs, he should be running on anything hit in the air and anything hit to the right side of the field. Where he needs to be more aware is on the ground ball hit to the shortstop or third baseman. A ball hit to the third baseman is an automatic freeze-and-wait until the fielder makes the long throw across the diamond to first. This should not be hard to understand because, once again, you never run into an out. Running on a groundball to third would result in an easy tag play for the fielder.
If the ball is hit to the shortstop, the runner has to recognize if it is behind him or in front of him. In other words, does that shortstop have to travel to his right or left in order to make the play.
If the ball is hit behind the runner more towards the 2nd base bag , he should be able to advance easily to 3rd base as the shortstop has an easier play at first because his momentum is taking him that direction.
Now, if the groundball is in front of the runner, the shortstop most likely has to travel to his right to make the play.