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The Selection Committee seeds each of the teams according to factors such as their performance against quality teams, particular those away from home. The tournament bracket is structured into four regions, each containing 16 teams.
Narrowing the field to these 64 teams requires eight teams to participate in four play-in games, termed the First Four. In the round of 64, each seed No.
In the remaining rounds of the tournament the Elite Eight, the National Semifinals, and the National Championship , the possible sets of seed match-ups include the entire set of 16 seeds.
While any seed combination reaching the Final Four is possible for these final three games, the probability of each seed combination is not uniformly distributed.
Using data from the past 34 tournaments through , prior seed match-ups and winners can be used to identify a distribution that models the probability of certain seed combinations playing in each round of the tournament. This is accomplished by determining the frequency that each seed reaches a given round, then fitting this data to a truncated geometric distribution 2 , a nonnegative discrete random variable formed by the number of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli random variables, with success probability p defined as the probability that the higher seed wins a particular game that occurs until reaching the first success.
Given that the NCAA tournament is single elimination, then a team cannot reach a round unless it has won in all the previous rounds. When is a Higher Seed Better? Click here for pdf. Web Developers in Web Developer in This is a student-driven project supervised by Professor Sheldon H.
If you would like to support the ongoing student development activities for this project, tax-deductible contributions can be made to the Department of Computer Science at the University of Illinois.