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These elements get a lot of attention in sports like basketball and hockey, but rarely on the diamond. For example, teams that have play multiple extra innings on a "get away" day can be good fades the next time out. That is especially true if their bullpen has been overused several days in a row and one or two of the top arms will probably sit for the next game. It also helps to pay close attention to how each manager utilizes the bullpen throughout the course of the season.
It won't take long to see patterns that can allow you to forecast which pitchers are likely to get used on a given night. With starting pitchers getting so much attention in regards to the betting line, putting in some extra work on bullpens can be a big moneymaker in baseball. The foundation of my handicapping career is that "gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics". And there are several fundamental mathematical principles that you can count on in wagering.
One area where I look for regression is in regards to batting average with runners in scoring position. When I'm looking at an MLB best bet the first thing to handicap is in the pitchers and how they matchup with the opposing lineups. But a factor that can take a good situation and make it a great one is when you have a team that is "due" because their numbers with runners in scoring position have been skewed outliers in recent games. First I noticed two horrid pitchers on the mound. But the thing that put the play over the edge was the fact that the Marlins offense was No.
They were going to break out. And facing a weak starter and a bad bullpen was exactly the kindling that lineup needed to catch fire. Miami scored eight runs that game — nearly covering the 9.
The numbers don't lie. Don't fight them, use them. That makes a best bet for me. And I base my daily best bets on how many of those stats come into play on a given day.
If I find a game in which I get seven of 10 then that play will be on par with a Game of the Year. One of the things you should look for is how teams perform in their last six games.
What you want is teams that are averaging at least six runs per game in their last six games versus a team that is averaging four runs or less over their last six games.
That is one useful tip for finding a best bet on the diamond and it is a system I have used to help me earn 9 of 10 winning baseball years. Sometimes you get lopsided pitching matchups on Friday because teams sometimes want their ace or number two pitcher going on Saturday. In early May on a Friday night we had the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Pittsburgh Pirates and we had great pitching value laying only in a game the Diamondbacks won So those should be days where you are looking to make your best bets of the day.
I know this seems kind of obvious. But sometime bettors can overthink things, especially when they are considering stepping out with a wager that is larger than normal. But you can often find tremendous value betting against the worst teams in the league.
You can't find line value with the top tier teams going up against the teams in the basement. The moneylines are usually too big. But if you are in a situation where you can find a second-tier or middle-of-the-pack team going up against the worst teams in the league then you have the beginning of a top play.
The five or six worst teams in baseball are reliable for their ability to lose games in a variety of manners. The worst teams in baseball generally don't have a strong home field advantage because they don't draw many fans. And the teams in the basement generally aren't much better at home than they are on the road. Foltynewicz R , 2. DeSclafani R , 4. Miley L , 2. Glasnow R , 4. Sampson R , 5. LeBlanc L , 3. Valdez L , 2. Hendricks R , 3. Corbin L , 3. Gray R , 4. Ryu L , 2. Suarez L , 4.
Mitchell R , 6. Also known as over-under odds, this involves predicting how many runs will be scored in the game by both teams combined. Baseball totals usually range from 6. When you see 9. Where you see a moneyline value attached to the 9.
So if you see 9. If the final score is , the total is 8 which is under 9. There are values for the over like 9. Most wagering in baseball happens on the moneyline, which replaces the point spread because most games are low-scoring games.